Predicting Undetected Infections During The 2007 Foot And Mouth Disease Epidemic

This research breaks new ground in targeting surveillance efforts during outbreaks of infectious diseases in livestock populations.


Our novel statistical methodology uses field data gathered as an outbreak progresses to pinpoint the locations of farms that, although presumed susceptible, are likely to have already been infected.


In doing so, this risk-prediction framework is able to aid the authorities in prioritising their field-officers to these locations in order to detect the presence of disease sooner than would otherwise be possible.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface


Journal of the Royal Society Interface is the Society's cross-disciplinary publication promoting research at the interface between the physical and life sciences. It offers rapidity, visibility and high-quality peer review and is ranked fifth in JCR's multidisciplinary category. The journal also incorporates Interface Focus, a peer-reviewed, themed supplement, each issue of which concentrates on a specific cross-disciplinary subject.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface